Many Kids Have Conditions that Increase Their Risk<\/h3>\n\n- Asthma (1 in 12 children) Source<\/a><\/li>\n
- Obesity (18.5%) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Type 1 Diabetes (1 in 400) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Type 2 Diabetes (3,700 new cases per year in kids) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Sickle Cell Disease (about 1 in 500 in Blacks and 1 in 1,000-1,400 in Hispanics) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Kidney Failure and End-Stage Kidney Disease (9,800 kids) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Cystic Fibrosis (30,000 children and adults with an average life expectancy of 37 years) Source 1<\/a> and Source 2<\/a><\/li>\n
- Cerebral Palsy (about 500,000 kids) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Down Syndrome (about 1 in 1,000 kids) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Cancer (about 15,780 kids) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Chronic Heart Disease (“As common as autism”) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Pregnancy (18.8 births per 1,000 teen girls) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n
- Autism (1.6% of 8 year olds, may increase risk) Source\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Making Grim Predictions<\/h2>\n
When we teach reading, we ask students to make predictions. We build this skill in children with reading and math so they can make informed predictions when they are adults. Let’s use our prediction skills along with our data interpretation skills to get a better idea of what we are facing if schools completely open. This prediction is based on all schools opening up back to all students. I know many schools are giving virtual options, which is wonderful to help control the spread of this disease.<\/p>\n
Known Facts<\/h3>\n\n- In normal circumstances, about 56,000,000 kids<\/a> go to public and private school in the US.<\/li>\n
- In normal circumstances, there are about 3,700,000 teachers in the US.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Emerging Data For Children<\/h3>\n\n- The best information I could find indicates a 0.69% fatality rate<\/a> in children who contract the virus.<\/li>\n
- This number may change as more children come out of at home social distancing and more data becomes available.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Emerging Data for Adults<\/h3>\n
We don’t know the true infection rate, so all these numbers in my chart are somewhat speculative. However they are based on available data. Case Fatality Rate<\/a> is not a great number for understanding pandemics. The preferred measure is the infection fatality rate, but that number is not yet available. It’s estimated currently to be between 0.6% and 1%<\/a>.<\/p>\nHow Many People Might Contract COVID-19<\/h3>\n
There are different estimates of what percentage of the population will contract COVID-19 eventually, without a vaccine. I’ve seen the number estimated to be between 56 to 81%<\/a>of the population.<\/p>\n\n- Low Estimate: 56% of the population<\/li>\n
- High Estimate: 81% of the population<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
In my graphs, I have highlighted in yellow the data ranges I think are most likely based on current data and estimates from scientists. Based on currently available data, I think the most likely infection fatality rate (IFR) will be between 0.6%-1% for adults. Without a vaccine in place, I am using a range of 55%-80% to correspond with the estimates of 56% to 81% of the population contracting the virus. I’ve highlighted in red the worst case, which also isn’t likely. In green, I’ve highlighted the best case scenario which is also pretty unlikely. I included a full range of numbers to offer comparison and allow us to imagine various scenarios more easily. Unfortunately, we must use new data because the virus is so new, but that also means it isn’t yet reliable. That means our leaders should be considering ranges of outcomes.<\/p>\n
Graphs to Examine the Key Question: Should we go back to school during COVID-19<\/h3>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.owlquest.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Children.png?resize=853%2C572&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n
Making Grim Predictions<\/h2>\n
When we teach reading, we ask students to make predictions. We build this skill in children with reading and math so they can make informed predictions when they are adults. Let’s use our prediction skills along with our data interpretation skills to get a better idea of what we are facing if schools completely open. This prediction is based on all schools opening up back to all students. I know many schools are giving virtual options, which is wonderful to help control the spread of this disease.<\/p>\n
Known Facts<\/h3>\n\n- In normal circumstances, about 56,000,000 kids<\/a> go to public and private school in the US.<\/li>\n
- In normal circumstances, there are about 3,700,000 teachers in the US.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Emerging Data For Children<\/h3>\n\n- The best information I could find indicates a 0.69% fatality rate<\/a> in children who contract the virus.<\/li>\n
- This number may change as more children come out of at home social distancing and more data becomes available.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Emerging Data for Adults<\/h3>\n
We don’t know the true infection rate, so all these numbers in my chart are somewhat speculative. However they are based on available data. Case Fatality Rate<\/a> is not a great number for understanding pandemics. The preferred measure is the infection fatality rate, but that number is not yet available. It’s estimated currently to be between 0.6% and 1%<\/a>.<\/p>\nHow Many People Might Contract COVID-19<\/h3>\n
There are different estimates of what percentage of the population will contract COVID-19 eventually, without a vaccine. I’ve seen the number estimated to be between 56 to 81%<\/a>of the population.<\/p>\n\n- Low Estimate: 56% of the population<\/li>\n
- High Estimate: 81% of the population<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
In my graphs, I have highlighted in yellow the data ranges I think are most likely based on current data and estimates from scientists. Based on currently available data, I think the most likely infection fatality rate (IFR) will be between 0.6%-1% for adults. Without a vaccine in place, I am using a range of 55%-80% to correspond with the estimates of 56% to 81% of the population contracting the virus. I’ve highlighted in red the worst case, which also isn’t likely. In green, I’ve highlighted the best case scenario which is also pretty unlikely. I included a full range of numbers to offer comparison and allow us to imagine various scenarios more easily. Unfortunately, we must use new data because the virus is so new, but that also means it isn’t yet reliable. That means our leaders should be considering ranges of outcomes.<\/p>\n
Graphs to Examine the Key Question: Should we go back to school during COVID-19<\/h3>\n
<\/p>\n
Emerging Data For Children<\/h3>\n\n- The best information I could find indicates a 0.69% fatality rate<\/a> in children who contract the virus.<\/li>\n
- This number may change as more children come out of at home social distancing and more data becomes available.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Emerging Data for Adults<\/h3>\n
We don’t know the true infection rate, so all these numbers in my chart are somewhat speculative. However they are based on available data. Case Fatality Rate<\/a> is not a great number for understanding pandemics. The preferred measure is the infection fatality rate, but that number is not yet available. It’s estimated currently to be between 0.6% and 1%<\/a>.<\/p>\nHow Many People Might Contract COVID-19<\/h3>\n
There are different estimates of what percentage of the population will contract COVID-19 eventually, without a vaccine. I’ve seen the number estimated to be between 56 to 81%<\/a>of the population.<\/p>\n\n- Low Estimate: 56% of the population<\/li>\n
- High Estimate: 81% of the population<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
In my graphs, I have highlighted in yellow the data ranges I think are most likely based on current data and estimates from scientists. Based on currently available data, I think the most likely infection fatality rate (IFR) will be between 0.6%-1% for adults. Without a vaccine in place, I am using a range of 55%-80% to correspond with the estimates of 56% to 81% of the population contracting the virus. I’ve highlighted in red the worst case, which also isn’t likely. In green, I’ve highlighted the best case scenario which is also pretty unlikely. I included a full range of numbers to offer comparison and allow us to imagine various scenarios more easily. Unfortunately, we must use new data because the virus is so new, but that also means it isn’t yet reliable. That means our leaders should be considering ranges of outcomes.<\/p>\n
Graphs to Examine the Key Question: Should we go back to school during COVID-19<\/h3>\n
<\/p>\n
Emerging Data for Adults<\/h3>\n
We don’t know the true infection rate, so all these numbers in my chart are somewhat speculative. However they are based on available data. Case Fatality Rate<\/a> is not a great number for understanding pandemics. The preferred measure is the infection fatality rate, but that number is not yet available. It’s estimated currently to be between 0.6% and 1%<\/a>.<\/p>\n There are different estimates of what percentage of the population will contract COVID-19 eventually, without a vaccine. I’ve seen the number estimated to be between 56 to 81%<\/a>of the population.<\/p>\n In my graphs, I have highlighted in yellow the data ranges I think are most likely based on current data and estimates from scientists. Based on currently available data, I think the most likely infection fatality rate (IFR) will be between 0.6%-1% for adults. Without a vaccine in place, I am using a range of 55%-80% to correspond with the estimates of 56% to 81% of the population contracting the virus. I’ve highlighted in red the worst case, which also isn’t likely. In green, I’ve highlighted the best case scenario which is also pretty unlikely. I included a full range of numbers to offer comparison and allow us to imagine various scenarios more easily. Unfortunately, we must use new data because the virus is so new, but that also means it isn’t yet reliable. That means our leaders should be considering ranges of outcomes.<\/p>\nHow Many People Might Contract COVID-19<\/h3>\n
\n
Graphs to Examine the Key Question: Should we go back to school during COVID-19<\/h3>\n
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.owlquest.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Teachers.png?resize=1080%2C483&ssl=1\")
<\/h3>\n